Sports Betting Model is a betting system, that helps you to find a positive expected value (value bet) in games that other bettors may not. This system will help you to estimate the probability for all outcomes in a certain game and then making unbiased betting selections, which are the key for success.
What follows goes for any sports betting model, and any sport. This isn’t unique to grading systems. This isn’t unique to grading systems. For example, you may have found that 35% of the time a Grade B team beats a grade A at Home, 20% of the time it was a draw, and 45% of the time the away team won.
Lineup based esports betting model. CSGO betting model is based on players’ lineups and their rankings and statistics. Every team has 5 players in the lineup and they go against each other. The model then predicts the winning probabilities for both teams.
The aim of any serious soccer bettor is to find data or use a model (usually a combination of both) that will provide accurate predictions of future performance. Various methods can be used - be it analysing the importance of the first six games of the season or calculating expected goals - but the trick is finding reliable predictions that are accurate enough to return a profit in terms of betting.
It should be noted that this approach has plenty of flaws (which will be outlined later on in the article) and cannot help you find value in soccer betting markets when used by itself. For the purposes of this article, we have used a Poisson model to create 1X2 odds for a match from final round of Premier League fixtures in the 2020/21 season.
What is a betting model? In it's simplest form a sports betting model is a system that can identify unbiased reference points from where you can determine the probability for all outcomes in a particular game.
According to our model, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool all offer some value. This is at the expense of Manchester United and to a lesser extent Tottenham. Potentially, the outright Premier League betting market still overrates Manchester United as a dominant force after the Ferguson era and Mourinho as a manager.
If you’re serious in your ambition to build a sports betting model, just know this, it can be difficult work. We won’t lie to you. It can mean long hours of tediously entering data, sorting spreadsheets, setting up databases, testing, re-testing and re-re-testing.